Severe Wx tomorrow?

The pressing question for tomorrow besides the heat is going to be whether we see severe wx or not. So, let's get to it.

Let's put up the WV imagery first:

The cold front is well off to the west of the area, as it slowly crawls eastward through the MW states. The upper level ridge is clearly in place in the east, and by later on tonight and tomorrow, the ridge axis will move off the coast. For most of the day, the axis was over New Jersey. SW flow aloft is clearly in place, and more moist humid air will advect in tomorrow from the Eastern G/L states. High cirrus clouds will move in the ridge, a "dirty ridge" to be exact for tomorrow as convective debris attempts to move in from the Tenessee Valley.

For tommorow to start the day, we will be dealing with some mid level and high level clouds as a shortwave trough tranverses the region to the NE. There could be some advection fog and stratus clouds across Long Island and SE CT, which will burn off during the morning under low level SW flow over still colder Atlantic waters. Then partly sunny conditions will be found and surface heating will commence over interior areas allowing for temperatures to once again get up into the 80's and lower 90's, even as 850mb temperatures are a tad bit higher tomorrow than today. Strong SW flow in the lower levels will allow for seabreezes at the coast, making for cooler conditions there. However, amny areas on Long Island did hit 80 degrees earlier on before the seabreezes kicked in. It will be more humid tomorrow, as dewpoints climb into the 60's.

So, severe wx tomorrow? I'd think so. The ingredients will be there for afternoon convection. First trigger is the approaching cold front. The cold front will approach very slowly eastward as it alligns with the SW upper flow, running paraellel to the front. Problem here is there is not a ton of upper level support to kick the front through so the front will weaken with time. MLCAPES will top off around 1,000 K/KG, more low level moisture as we see a rise in dewpoints. So the front will run into a moderately unstable airmass. We were capped for most of the day today, but that won't be the case tomorrow as a mid level shortwave treks through, and it will provide lift, so little to no capping. Another trigger will be the pre-frontal trough that will develop to the west of the NYC area. Soundings show pretty decent low level shear and deep layer shear and a 50 knot SW LLJ will develop at 850mb, that will be a huge key as well. Strong mid level winds, strong deep layer and low level shear will be conducive for supercells and bowing segments to form, as well as a isolated tornado or two. Large hail and damaging winds can also be found. Further east, the marine layer will inhibit surface instability, thus convection as well. Upper jet support won't arrive until later at night for those areas, but loss of heating will prevent any severe wx, but weaker convective activity can still be found. Showers will continue tomorrow night as the front slowly sinks southward. Models show some elevated marginal instability, and with enough forcing from the front, thunder is possible.

Not a pretty day expected tomorrow.