Hi guys. Going to do a evening update here.
Looked at the afternoon mesoscale analysis from the SPC and looked at surface observations, I noted broken clusters of thunderstorms, a few of them strong to severe treking eastward from the Apps into the Mid-Atlantic states. These storms will be capable of producing damaging winds and large hail, especially as they continue to transverse eastward into a swath of greater instability values. Noting 35-50 knots of 0-6km of bulk shear and MULCAPE values around 1500 J/KG and higher.
Destablization has been slow today.....mainly because of warmer mid level temperatures and some subsidence after the morning showers treked through the area. I've noted this across New Jersey, Eastern PA and SE NY. But in those same areas, the latest mesoscale models show an increase in instability, which has occured, with some storms turning severe in Central and Eastern PA. Bulk Shear increases a bit as well, and this helps to convection becoming better organized. Threat still includes large hail and damaging wind gusts, especially in Western NJ. In areas closer to the east, instability is not as prevalent, but there is higher levels of low level shear closer to the warm front, which could also lead to damaging wind gusts, even as instability levels are not as high. The front should be offshore after midnight, with drier air gradually working in on NW winds later on tonight.
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