Hi guys. Today was a raw, wet, cool, disgusting day. Will tomorrow be better? Looking at surface obs and short term model soundings, there is plenty of low level moisture in place, thanks to low level easterly flow. That means areas of drizzle and the potential for patchy fog in a few spots.
Low pressure is currently passing southeastward of Long Island and will continue to trek into the Atlantic tonight. Then high pressure will build in from the north, and a weak upper level ridge will build in. The nicer weather will be short-lived. This is what happens in a progressive pattern like this. Once the high moves offshore, the next frontal boundary from the Mid-West will move through. The GFS model continues to be too quick with bringing in precipitation tomorrow night. Even with the progressive upper level flow in place, it's still too quick with shortwaves moving through the flow. But there could be some showers later tomorrow night as a warm front approaches from the southwest. So I included pops for the NYC metro area as the warm front surges northward, as the area becomes warm sectored on Friday. As mentioned, the GFS becomes too aggressive with precipitation, while the NAM is further north with the precip. The SREF model becomes the reasonable middle alternative between the GFS/NAM and wll be used.
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