Severe Storms This Afternoon?

That is the question being asked this morning. Gonna put the entire CWA area in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms, except for Suffolk County in Eastern LI, as they will be under a general risk for thunderstorms. That area may not see much in the way of destablization as they continue to sit in the marine layer.  As of 12Z, the surface warm has not yet cleared the area and the surface low, at 1015mb is located in Western New York with the surface cold front driving through NW Ohio. Instability will increase after the passage of the cold front, as models show about 45 knots of 0-6km bulk shear, and forcing increases for ascent. This leads to an enviornment for updrafts, mainly after 18Z or 3PM this afternoon. Favorable wind fields and the presence of some low level shear could make for damaging wind gusts mainly for areas southwestern areas of the forecast area, including SW Jersey. I am still iffy on areas further to the north, including Long Island. It will depend on how much destablization occurs after the warm frontal passage. I think Long Island will stay in an onshore flow, which will limit the amount of destablization present, due to a southerly low level flow over the cooler waters. Here, they will stay in the marine layer, but western sections of Long Island were kept in the slight risk. NYC and points west will warm into the upper 70's-lower 80's, while Long Island stays in the upper 60's-lower 70's with the onshore flow.

Dewpoints should continue to rise into the mid 60's. If everthing goes as according to plan, the presence of a cold front..forcing..50kts of 0-6km bulk shear..and at least 1000j/kg of MLCAPE suggests the potential for at least isolated damaging wind gusts by 18-21z.