Pattern Change On The Way; Warmer And More Humid By The Weekend!!

A pattern change is on the way folks and a welcome one at that! The ULL, currently spinning through New York State, is treking to the east today. The surface low, well off  the coast, is treking to the northeast as a kicker upper level disturbance is shunting the low off to the NE. It's also dragging a cold front through as winds have switched over the northwest, ushering in much cooler and drier air. Dewpoints have since dropped into the 30's and 40's. Tomorrow will be a rather cool day however, as the pressure gradient tightens as the upper disturbance over the Tennessee Valley phases with the surface low offshore and the upper cold pool moves over the area.

Once that pesky ULL moves out, there will be a rapid moderation in temperatures as a ridge begins to build in from the west. The computer models are having a difficult time with the possible break-down of the blocky regime we've had over North America.

Let's throw up the 12Z GFS 500mb pattern for a second.

See that ULL to the east of Maine. That ULL has been associated with a -NAO. However, the models want to breakdown the blocky regime. That ULL will begin to shift to the northeast. You can clearly see the ridge over the Eastern US. That is called the SE ridge. We've seen over the past several weeks, average to below average temperatures, marine airmasses, and slow moving low pressure systems. That is due to that ULL and the -NAO. That ULL will shift north of the Canadian Maritimes, and the ridge axis can build up into Southeastern Canada, leading to a SW flow aloft and at the surface. What does that mean? Warm, dry and humid conditions through the weekend. By early next week, a backdoor cold front will try to move south from Ontario. Each day will feature scattered showers and thunderstorms as impulses move up and over the ridge. Temps in the 70's and 80's can be expected each day. Summer is here now folks!!!!!!!!!