Hello folks. As you can see, it's a miserable day outside. Many areas picked up over an inch of rain this morning, however moist easterly flow continues to keep in the clouds, drizzle, and cool temperatures. Let's look at the WV imagery for a second.
The troublemaker responisble for this dreary weaather is currently spinning in the MW. The ULL is tracking eastward through Indiana ATM. Moisture continues to be transported up the coasr in SW flow aloft, while easterly flow continues in the lower levels, with high pressure anchored off the NE coast.
Now let's look at the current surface analysis from TWC.
The warm front is still south of Long Island, as of 4:38 PM. The warm front shouldn't make much more progress either northward or southward due to the upper flow running parallel to the front. A potent shortwave trough is dropping southeastward out of Eastern Canada into New England, and that is helping to keep those northern areas drier as it shunts the deeper moisture and associated lifting southward.
The light rain/drizzle should transition into stratiform rain again later tonight as a shortwave rotating around the ULL moves eastward along the warm front. Moisture should deepen again and instentropic lift should increase. Another 0.50 to 0.75 inches of rain should fall into tomorrow afternoon.Models advertise a third and final shortwave treking eastward along the front, but most of the rainfall should stay off the coast. On Tuesday, the ULL moves through into New England, and we could see some showers in cyclonic flow aloft s the ULL's associated cold pool aloft works on through. Winds should shift to the North Northwest by Tuesday, ushering in cooler, drier air and conditions should slowly improve on Wednesday.
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