What We're About

Welcome to the New York City Metro Weather Blog. I am Danny and I am 22 years old. Here, you will find daily forecasts for the NYC/LI, NJ, PA, and CT areas. I will post model images when it's pertinent. I will sometimes delve into the long-range, so if you something coming up, you can get an idea of what the weather will be like. I will post historical weather events from time to time that have affected my home of Long Island. Sometimes, I will go on a rant. But you can always count on the New York City Metro Weather Blog!

Sunday, April 6, 2008

To Wishcast or Not to Wishcast.....that is the question

What is wishcasting? “Wishcasting” is hoping for major storms beyond the typical computer forecast model accuracy limit, which varies with opinion but is probably greater than 4 days and less than 10. We have all been guilty of this including myself especially in the winter. The problem is wishcasting is not an ideal way to forecast at all. By calling a "blizzard" for every storm you see, it does two things: 1) readers and posters may end up getting the wrong information and they take that "wishcast" information and then post about it 2) this is how fights break out and how personal attacks get launched. Someone disagrees or something and then bashing of other members occurs. We have seen this time after time. Professional Meterologists do not wishcast. It is usually not tolerated in other forums. The best way to forecast is to look at the models and analyze them. You look at surface temps, qpf amounts, the "teleconnections" (especially in the wintertime) which are the NAO, AO and the PNA, radars, and other things. Think of it as a cake. Many ingredients go into the bowl. The same thing occurs with weather. There are many different things that come into play when determining a forecast. Weather is unpredictable and changes everyday. So wishcasting is not the right way to go. Don't let other people tell you looking at the models are boring.

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