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Welcome to the New York City Metro Weather Blog. I am Danny and I am 22 years old. Here, you will find daily forecasts for the NYC/LI, NJ, PA, and CT areas. I will post model images when it's pertinent. I will sometimes delve into the long-range, so if you something coming up, you can get an idea of what the weather will be like. I will post historical weather events from time to time that have affected my home of Long Island. Sometimes, I will go on a rant. But you can always count on the New York City Metro Weather Blog!

Sunday, April 6, 2008

Hurricane Season 2008 Forecast Released

ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2008
Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000
Climatology (in parentheses)
7 December 2007
Forecast for 2008
Named Storms (NS) (9.6)
13
Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1)
60
Hurricanes (H) (5.9)
7
Hurricane Days (HD) (24.5)
30
Intense Hurricanes (IH) (2.3)
3
Intense Hurricane Days (IHD) (5.0)
6
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1)
115
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (100%)
125


PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:

1) Entire U.S. coastline - 60% (average for last century is 52%)

2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 37% (average for last century is 31%)

3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 36% (average for last century is 30%)

4) Above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean
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