Hurricane Andrew

Andrew first became a tropical depression on August 16 and on August 17, became the first tropical storm of the season. The storm moved rapidly west and northwest during the next few days and on August 22 had reached hurricane strength.
Andrew maintained its strength and was still a Category 5 hurricane, with gusts of wind reaching 175 mph, when it made landfall at Homestead, AFB in Dade County, Florida at 5 a.m., August 24, 1992. The impact on Dade County was extreme. The power of the hurricane created storm surges registered as high as 16 feet, and the sheer force of the storm took the lives of 16 residents. Luckily, the loss of life was not greater due to the prompt evacuations of more than one million people. However, the loss of property was massive. More than 28,000 homes were destroyed, and some 109,408 others sustained major to minor damages. For mobile home residents, the destruction was nearly total. More than 90 percent of all mobile homes in Dade County were destroyed in the storm. In Homestead, 99 percent were destroyed. Boat owners, too, suffered massively from Andrew, with losses estimated at more than $500 million. Almost nothing in the region was untouched by the massive storm. Trees were uprooted, power lines were knocked over, and debris covered the ground. In all, officials estimated that in Dade County alone, Hurricane Andrew caused some $25 billion worth of damage. After making landfall, Andrew continued west across the southern Florida peninsula, eventually moving out to Gulf of Mexico and weakening in strength. However, the storm shifted to a northwest direction, and, on August 26, struck the south-central coast of Louisiana as a category 3 hurricane, sustaining winds of up to 130 mph. Fortunately, Andrew struck a sparsely populated area of Louisiana and missed the vulnerable metropolitan New Orleans region. Once again hitting land, Andrew quickly weakened as it moved north and within 10 hours had reduced to tropical storm level. Despite its reduced strength, Andrew caused an estimated $1 billion worth of damages in Louisiana and claimed the lives of 8 residents, two of whom were killed by tornadoes spawned by the storm system. By mid-day on August 28th, Hurricane Andrew had merged with other systems over the Mid-Atlantic United States and dissipated. The storm was over, but the recovery had yet to begin.

Rogue Storm to Form East of Florida

An easterly flow off the ocean is keeping the coast cool. But the southern feature moving off the Atlantic Coast should feedback tomorrow and Wednesday and develop a enthusiastic looking storm that will develop rogue characteristics (warm core look with gales surrounding the center). It doesn't look like it will affect land. The storm is moving eastward into the ocean. It will go under the block and end up somewhere north of Puerto Rico. Why bring this up? They rarely affect land at all. They are named at the whims of Miami if indeed they develop rogue characteristics. This is taken from the COAMPS model at 24 hrs. You can clearly see it on the surface map.

To Wishcast or Not to Wishcast.....that is the question

What is wishcasting? “Wishcasting” is hoping for major storms beyond the typical computer forecast model accuracy limit, which varies with opinion but is probably greater than 4 days and less than 10. We have all been guilty of this including myself especially in the winter. The problem is wishcasting is not an ideal way to forecast at all. By calling a "blizzard" for every storm you see, it does two things: 1) readers and posters may end up getting the wrong information and they take that "wishcast" information and then post about it 2) this is how fights break out and how personal attacks get launched. Someone disagrees or something and then bashing of other members occurs. We have seen this time after time. Professional Meterologists do not wishcast. It is usually not tolerated in other forums. The best way to forecast is to look at the models and analyze them. You look at surface temps, qpf amounts, the "teleconnections" (especially in the wintertime) which are the NAO, AO and the PNA, radars, and other things. Think of it as a cake. Many ingredients go into the bowl. The same thing occurs with weather. There are many different things that come into play when determining a forecast. Weather is unpredictable and changes everyday. So wishcasting is not the right way to go. Don't let other people tell you looking at the models are boring.

Hurricane Gloria

Hurricane Gloria - September 26-28, 1985
Gloria became a tropical depression near the Cape Verde Islands on the 16th. It slowlydeveloped into a tropical storm, and moved west-northward through the tropical Atlanticat near 20 mph. On the 22nd, Gloria finally became a hurricane to the north of the LeewardIslands. Development continued at a faster rate, and Gloria became a category four hurricaneas it moved northwestward to the east of the Bahamas. Gloria assumed a more northward track, and passed over the Outer Banks of North Carolina early on the 27th. Accelerating rapidly, Gloria made a second landfall on the afternoon of the 27th on western Long Island, then fully became a strong nontropical low as it passed into the Canadian Maritimes that evening.

Overall, the storm caused extensive damage along the East Coast of the United States, amounting to $900 million ($1.6 billion in 2005 USD), and was responsible for 8 fatalities. The storm was the first significant system to impact the northeastern United States since Hurricane Agnes in 1972 and the first major storm to affect New York and Long Island directly since Hurricane Donna in 1960. It was the last storm to hit the northeast until Hurricane Bob in 1991.

Cool April Coming?

Yes, it seems this way. Winter is finally over. But it seems as if the warm temperatures do not want to be found across the NE. We get a slight taste of Spring this week. A storm moving into Ontario should allow the winds to shift to the south and bring in much warmer air. Right now, a storm is exiting the coast and a cool NE flow can be found, keeping temperatures in check. By Tuesday, we should get back to near normal and above normal later in the week before the next storm system moves in for next weekend. (More on that later) It seems like right now the GFS sets up a trough over the east for next week and keeps temperatures cooler than normal. That pattern may persist in the east for the next few weeks. The ECMWF has reversed itself with the summer-like temps in the east and has gone with the GFS. That should verify by next week. So enjoy the nice weather folks this week while it lasts. Next week shouldn't be too nice.

This is from Brett Anderson, a meterologist at Accuweather. This is from his weekly long range forecast.

The week of April 14-20
The model is forecasting a major trough (pocket of cold air aloft) over the Yukon and northern British Columbia and a weak trough over the northeastern U.S. The model is also hinting at a weak ridge aloft (mild/dry air) over Greenland.If I do not mention a specific region then that usually means I do not see anything significant compared to normal for that particular week.

-Wet and chilly across New England

The week of April 21-27
The model is showing a weak upper-level trough in the means over Alaska, while a ridge sits off of Newfoundland.

-More cool/wet weather for the northeastern U.S./most of Ontario/southern Quebec and Nova Scotia.

The week of April 28- May 4

-Unseasonably cool from the prairies to Ontario, Great Lakes and New England.--Drier and milder than normal from Labrador to Newfoundland.--Wet pattern for the Northeast U.S., Ontario and southern Quebec. (Must watch the flood potential!) --Place to be..........Sunny California (a nice warm/dry pattern). I hear you loud and clear Brett

On This Day in Weather History (April 6)

On April 6, 1988, downtown Chicago reported extremely strong winds that blew out 97 windows from the Sears Tower. A local tree, which was the oldest in the state (over 700 years old), was also destroyed. Wind speeds were clocked at 58 mph at O'Hare, 75 mph at the lakefront, and 47 mph in Rockford.

Hurricane Season 2008 Forecast Released

ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2008
Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000
Climatology (in parentheses)
7 December 2007
Forecast for 2008
Named Storms (NS) (9.6)
13
Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1)
60
Hurricanes (H) (5.9)
7
Hurricane Days (HD) (24.5)
30
Intense Hurricanes (IH) (2.3)
3
Intense Hurricane Days (IHD) (5.0)
6
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1)
115
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (100%)
125


PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:

1) Entire U.S. coastline - 60% (average for last century is 52%)

2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 37% (average for last century is 31%)

3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 36% (average for last century is 30%)

4) Above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean

The Saffir-Simpson Scale

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a 1-5 rating based on the hurricane's present intensity. This is used to give an estimate of the potential property damage and flooding expected along the coast from a hurricane landfall. Wind speed is the determining factor in the scale, as storm surge values are highly dependent on the slope of the continental shelf in the landfall region


Category 1 Hurricane — winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)No real damage to buildings. Damage to unanchored mobile homes. Some damage to poorly constructed signs. Also, some coastal flooding and minor pier damage.- Examples: Irene 1999 and Allison 1995

Category 2 Hurricane — winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)Some damage to building roofs, doors and windows. Considerable damage to mobile homes. Flooding damages piers and small craft in unprotected moorings may break their moorings. Some trees blown down.- Examples: Bonnie 1998, Georges(FL & LA) 1998 and Gloria 1985

Category 3 Hurricane — winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings. Large trees blown down. Mobile homes and poorly built signs destroyed. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by floating debris. Terrain may be flooded well inland.- Examples: Keith 2000, Fran 1996, Opal 1995, Alicia 1983 and Betsy 1965

Category 4 Hurricane — winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failure on small residences. Major erosion of beach areas. Terrain may be flooded well inland.- Examples: Hugo 1989 and Donna 1960

Category 5 Hurricane — winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. Flooding causes major damage to lower floors of all structures near the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas may be required.- Examples: Andrew(FL) 1992, Camille 1969 and Labor Day 1935

What is a Hurricane?

A hurricane is a type of tropical cyclone, the generic term for a low pressure system that generally forms in the tropics. A typical cyclone is accompanied by thunderstorms, and in the Northern Hemisphere, a counterclockwise circulation of winds near the earth’s surface.
All Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coastal areas are subject to hurricanes or tropical storms. Parts of the Southwest United States and the Pacific Coast experience heavy rains and floods each year from hurricanes spawned off Mexico. The Atlantic hurricane season lasts from June to November, with the peak season from mid-August to late October.